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Friday 1 January 2021

Wishes for a happy 2021 and how likely it is that it will be better than 2020.

After having consulted dozens of industry experts (mathematicians, psychologists, astrologers, barbers, bartenders, even epidemiologists), after having carefully examined the historical archives of authoritative publications (Ansa, Gazzetta Ufficiale, Gazzetta dello Sport, Lottomatica), after asking questions to Greek, Tibetan, Arab, Trasteverine oracles ... and having interpreted their profound but cryptic answers ("consolate coll'ajetto", "remain like Pietro from Arezzo") ... we have come to the following conclusions.

Supported by the results of our research (of which we will soon publish a paper on Disney Literature Masterpieces), we can say, without possibility of denial, that the probability that the year 2021 is better (whatever it means to you) than the year 2020 is equal to:


or you will have a chance in two, next New Year, to feel sorry for the end of 2021. Or if you prefer 50 every 100, or 5000 every 10000. Indeed, in this period in which everyone gives numbers (in the true sense of the term), we are not afraid to say that 2021 will be better than 2020 in one million cases (out of two million, but ignoring this detail a pretty good result).

Other studies, based on the mean quadratic distribution of the "fluke", would state that in reality the probability is equal to 50% but only for 50% of the population. Using simple calculations, 2021 would always be better than 2020 in one million cases (out of four million, but continue to ignore the details).

There are those who are ready to swear that, for 10% of a well-known slice of the population, 2021 will certainly be better than 2020. For the remaining 90% (sometimes referred to as "working class", " employees "," the usual ones to pay "), will certainly be worse.

A delegation of the African people also gave its contribution, estimating an improvement percentage close to 0%. Demonstrating little knowledge of mathematics (a probability of 0 does not represent an impossible event, but only very rare), as well as a lack of gratitude for the efforts made by the Western world.

The sub-delegations of Niger, Tanzania and Mozambique even calculated a deterioration rate of 105%! Translated into understandable words, for a strange astral conjunction their 2021 will last about 383 days ... and those extra 18 days will still be shitty.

In any case, best wishes for a good 2021 to everyone, even to those who will do absolutely nothing to make it so.

Last update: confidential sources inform us that, in the next edition of Monopoly 2021, the usual "chance" deck will be replaced by a second "community chest" deck. The introduction of a third deck "draw if you dare" is being studied.

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